Recently, Iran launched a missile attack targeting the US base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Iran’s missile launch targeting the base, which is more than 2,000 miles (more than 3,000 kilometers) from its coastal area, has changed the calculation of war for the United States.
After such an incident, new questions have been raised about Tehran’s military capabilities and how far their missiles are.
Iran fired two medium-range ballistic missiles at the US-British military base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean on Friday morning (March 20) local time, a US official told CNN. However, none of the missiles could hit the base. The military base was built in Diego Garcia, a very remote area of the ocean, to keep it out of the enemy’s reach; this was the first attempted attack there.
Although the attack was not successful, it indicated that Iran may no longer be complying with the 2,000 km range limit it imposed on itself. As a result, there is growing concern about whether Tehran can hit US and European targets farther than previously thought.
Jeffrey Lewis, a prominent scholar at Middlebury College of Global Security, told CNN that Iran was developing an intercontinental ballistic missile. However, in 2017, the then supreme leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei imposed a limit on the range of 2,000 kilometers, so it started to be used for launching vehicles into space. ‘they were waiting for a change like Khamenei, Lewis said. Now he’s dead.’
Trita Percy, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, believes that the American mainland is safe for now. However, he said, ‘this attack shows that the American bases which were considered to be beyond the reach of Iran, have actually come within the scope now. This may include US warships 3,000 kilometers away.’
Percy also noted that this incident may rethink European countries, including Romania, which have allowed US forces to use their bases. As a result, those bases are now at risk of becoming targets of Iran.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran is developing missiles that could reach the US mainland very soon. However, according to a 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, Tehran may be able to develop a militarily effective intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035 if it wants to.
Sam Layer, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, told CNN, ‘people often forget that spacecraft launch technology and ballistic missile technology are essentially the same.’
He thinks Iran may have reached this long distance by using their rockets like ‘kayem-100’ for ballistic purposes or reduced the explosive weight of the missile.
But Percy questioned whether Iran had the intelligence needed to accurately hit distant targets. According to him, Iran is probably getting information about the exact location or movement of remote areas like Diego Garcia from Russia or China. According to a recent CNN report, Russia is currently supporting Iran with intelligence on the location of US troops, ships and aircraft.
